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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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