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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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