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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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