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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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