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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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