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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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