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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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