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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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