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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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