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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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