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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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