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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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