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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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