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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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