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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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