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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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