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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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