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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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