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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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