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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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