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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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