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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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