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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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