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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- The University of Queensland
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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