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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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