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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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