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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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