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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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