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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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