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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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