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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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