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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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