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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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