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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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