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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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