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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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