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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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