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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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