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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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