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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
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