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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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