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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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