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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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