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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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