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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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