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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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