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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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