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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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