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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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