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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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