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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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