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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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