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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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