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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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