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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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