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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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