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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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