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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effecti ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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