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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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