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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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