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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
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Showing 1411 to 1415 news of total 6871 |
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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