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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
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Showing 1411 to 1415 news of total 6871 |
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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