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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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