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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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