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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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