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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 09 June 19
SUPRAMAX: ASIA LOST GROUND; THE INDIAN OCEAN SAW SLOWER ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued in an unusually steady ascent last week. With no major news in the market, each day improved on the last, breakin ...
Friday, 07 June 19
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR 1.87 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JULY - OCTOBER 2019 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,700,000 to 1,870,000 Metric Tons ...
Wednesday, 05 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first semester of 2019 started as a fairly positive semester for the offshore sector whilst there was a recovery on crude prices, as well as a ...
Tuesday, 04 June 19
MARPOL ANNEX VI - SULPHUR CAP 2020 - DEMYSTIFYING THE FONAR - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report (FONAR) is primarily a discretionary tool for a Member State to lessen the breach of MAR ...
Monday, 03 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 TONNER OPEN NORTH CHINA, FIXING A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY SOUTHEAST ASIA AT $7,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued its steady ascent over the past week to improved levels. The TC average opened the previous week at $12,243 and c ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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