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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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