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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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