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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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