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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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