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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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