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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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