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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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