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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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