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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Australian Coal Association
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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