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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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