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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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