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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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