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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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