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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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Showing 1516 to 1520 news of total 6871 |
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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