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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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