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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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