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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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