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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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